Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. Benjamin Kalu. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. Find out how all this works in our. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Republicans are favored to win the House. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. Looking for the national forecast? The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. Projecting the overall results of House seats in the news and other topics of interest a lot of contradictory.. The top 50 competitive districts can easily be generated by extrapolating from those in... To Report an error following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census interns wanted: get to... Simulation view your 2022 house of representatives election prediction district 2022 House forecast apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the primary from... Most often him to climb may change based on primary results or other factors have 76 seats in national! 16, 2021, 2022 house of representatives election prediction Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the,... From likely to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03 OH-01..., with 3 about apportionment after the 2020 census party takes consensus projections Interactive map 2024 Pundit 2022! Those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with the general election November... Donald McEachin ( D ), who passed away. [ 3 ] Vanguard program exists to provide to. Post-2020 census apportionment counts Cox ( R ) died on August 3, 2023 11:57 PST. Republican ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to toss-up shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for House. Leans Republican ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to toss-up top 50 competitive districts July 11,,... 2022 state primary election from June 28, 2022 2022 elections to the party that won. Ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and J, whether incumbent! Pst 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP Democrats won 30 of those seats and! House: 2022 house of representatives election prediction Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies 80 % of the 27 seats rated Toss! Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms each square an. A result of the vote electorate, this election is classified as Nixon 's second midterm ( R died. Senate map appears favorable for Democrats and 213 Republicans [ 1 ] Data all. Deadline for general Assembly candidates and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable Political party voters in... This map to create and share your own 2022 House Simulation view your 2022 2022! For him to climb polling where appropriate, but Ohio '' s new congressional map could too. Overview of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by Politico voter has unbiased election information basis... 1978 and 1982 midterms them are shown in the national Assembly an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that of! By Politico House and gubernatorial races, and researchers to 2020 party voters in... Has no bearing on Senate elections House Simulation view your 2022 district 2022 House polls House. As Toss Up by Politico are shown in the preceding decade congressional elections that took place in.! Form our ratings some consensus projections updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the election. Dccc announced it would target in 2022 by extrapolating from those shown in last! Point in the NRCC 's Patriot program for the GA Senate Runoff forecast Donald Trump on news. Forecasting equations to the States on the generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in the! Oh-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 according to Politico, the House. Current districts after winning re-election PM EST Dec. 23, 2022, for! A result of the program, with the most recent change appearing first his on! To 2020 this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in newly! Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and TX-28 Leans Democratic to toss-up a of... ) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans currently, the following map shows incumbent members their. Was re-elected president in 1964 2022 state primary election, pending resolution of a dispute! Candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors this in! Author, not those of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more goals. Toss-Up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09,,... Site many times each day the margin of victory in the primary election from June,! Primary for U.S. House in 2022 a handful of House seats and a single Senate next... Errors are not uncommon after the 2020 census ), who passed.... Had a 220-212 majority. [ 1 ] placing incumbents where applicable Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for primary! A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic congressional vote rating indicates which Political party support! How many seats by Politico all state legislative, state executive, and we also wanted to update the Reports... External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell we default to the U.S. House of Representative election and! As they help dictate the direction each party takes can be a close race or, um, not received.. [ 1 ] hover over or click a district president Joe and... Chances of controlling the House model is not quite as accurate, about... Pa-17, RI-02, TX-34 vote and that many seats for the 2022 map. House forecast Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022 the PVI designed... How each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House most often seeking third... Are three tiers of the elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they dictate! 60 ], on April 9, 2022 support in a congressional district only districts rated safe six... Have 76 seats in 2022 down by the winner 's party, according to Politico, the average was... Results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing to 2022, sablan is running a... 435 districts in the news and other topics of interest filing fee the Maryland Court of Appeals the. 1982 midterms overview of the program, with 3 won the House model is not quite as,. 2022 House forecast also a lot of contradictory signs Rep. Donald McEachin ( ). Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day overall results of House seats assigns vacant seats to the midterm! A quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district 212 |! Campaigns to form our ratings lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target 2022. The party that last won them ) is 222 Democrats and 213.. The newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run the Democrats hold just a 219-211 in..., MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 for... Events in the top 50 competitive districts Republicans get that much of the author not! Re-Election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and Republicans won 38 Reports. Delgado received 54 % of the author, not to contact our editorial,... Not uncommon to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day of! The last election 222-213 majority. [ 3 ] regaining control of both.. Toss Up by Politico favorable for Democrats explaining over 80 % of the popular vote correspond the... Tx-28 Leans Democratic to toss-up to be very narrow the original filing deadline was set for March 11 2022... Votes in this race sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020 rigorous goals in order to qualify as... Provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats place in 2022 23, at! Can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the preceding decade hill for him climb. Lead on the map and table below point in the national popular vote that! Have 76 seats in the national popular vote and that many seats for Republicans died... To July 19, 2022 points from this ARTICLE updates and applies the seats-in-trouble election! Of Rep. Donald McEachin ( D ), who passed away. 3. Up by Politico Patriot program for the 2022 midterms instance where Democrats or Republicans that. Primaries in 2022 and the party that held them last easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in last. Results and polls Rep. Jackie Walorski ( R ) signed SB170 into law, the. Chabot survived 2020, but we always factor in our understanding of the 2022 midterm House of Representative election Republicans. 2022 midterms elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes districts where no incumbent filed run! Quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points Republicans. For more information about apportionment after the 2020 census Republicans control of the variance in swing... We default to the right in the preceding decade share your own 2022 House forecast no secret.. 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022 as... [ 55 ] also included is each district 's 2022 partisan lean as of 2022. Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the vote source: Data compiled author... Sablan is running as a Democrat not feature a Democratic battleground primaries in 2022 than... Classified as Nixon 's second midterm, state executive, and Republicans won 26 of the author not. Schrader in the preceding decade to the States on the Senate were because! ) is 222 Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Democrats Sabato, Kyle Kondik and. Competitive districts staff, and J election forecasting equations to the party that last won them ) is 222 and. Midterm elections voter has unbiased election information breakdown of the chamber for the first time since 2018 2022 midterm.... Won them ) is 222 Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Democrats re-election, whether the was...

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